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Abstract Network interference, where the outcome of an individual is affected by the treatment assignment of those in their social network, is pervasive in real-world settings. However, it poses a challenge to estimating causal effects. We consider the task of estimating the total treatment effect (TTE), or the difference between the average outcomes of the population when everyone is treated versus when no one is, under network interference. Under a Bernoulli randomized design, we provide an unbiased estimator for the TTE when network interference effects are constrained to low-order interactions among neighbors of an individual. We make no assumptions on the graph other than bounded degree, allowing for well-connected networks that may not be easily clustered. We derive a bound on the variance of our estimator and show in simulated experiments that it performs well compared with standard estimators for the TTE. We also derive a minimax lower bound on the mean squared error of our estimator, which suggests that the difficulty of estimation can be characterized by the degree of interactions in the potential outcomes model. We also prove that our estimator is asymptotically normal under boundedness conditions on the network degree and potential outcomes model. Central to our contribution is a new framework for balancing model flexibility and statistical complexity as captured by this low-order interactions structure. 

Randomized experiments are widely used to estimate causal effects across many domains. However, classical causal inference approaches rely on independence assumptions that are violated by network interference, when the treatment of one individual influences the outcomes of others. All existing approaches require at least approximate knowledge of the network, which may be unavailable or costly to collect. We consider the task of estimating the total treatment effect (TTE), the average difference between the outcomes when the whole population is treated versus when the whole population is untreated. By leveraging a staggered rollout design, in which treatment is incrementally given to random subsets of individuals, we derive unbiased estimators for TTE that do not rely on any prior structural knowledge of the network, as long as the network interference effects are constrained to low-degree interactions among neighbors of an individual. We derive bounds on the variance of the estimators, and we show in experiments that our estimator performs well against baselines on simulated data. Central to our theoretical contribution is a connection between staggered rollout observations and polynomial extrapolation. 

Modern neural network architectures use structured linear transformations, such as low-rank matrices, sparse matrices, permutations, and the Fourier transform, to improve inference speed and reduce memory usage compared to general linear maps. However, choosing which of the myriad structured transformations to use (and its associated parameterization) is a laborious task that requires trading off speed, space, and accuracy. We consider a different approach: we introduce a family of matrices called kaleidoscope matrices (K-matrices) that provably capture any structured matrix with near-optimal space (parameter) and time (arithmetic operation) complexity. We empirically validate that K-matrices can be automatically learned within end-to-end pipelines to replace hand-crafted procedures, in order to improve model quality. For example, replacing channel shuffles in ShuffleNet improves classification accuracy on ImageNet by up to 5%. K-matrices can also simplify hand-engineered pipelines---we replace filter bank feature computation in speech data preprocessing with a learnable kaleidoscope layer, resulting in only 0.4% loss in accuracy on the TIMIT speech recognition task. In addition, K-matrices can capture latent structure in models: for a challenging permuted image classification task, adding a K-matrix to a standard convolutional architecture can enable learning the latent permutation and improve accuracy by over 8 points. We provide a practically efficient implementation of our approach, and use K-matrices in a Transformer network to attain 36% faster end-to-end inference speed on a language translation task. 

Fast linear transforms are ubiquitous in machine learning, including the discrete Fourier transform, discrete cosine transform, and other structured transformations such as convolutions. All of these transforms can be represented by dense matrix-vector multiplication, yet each has a specialized and highly efficient (subquadratic) algorithm. We ask to what extent hand-crafting these algorithms and implementations is necessary, what structural prior they encode, and how much knowledge is required to automatically learn a fast algorithm for a provided structured transform. Motivated by a characterization of fast matrix-vector multiplication as products of sparse matrices, we introduce a parameterization of divide-and-conquer methods that is capable of representing a large class of transforms. This generic formulation can automatically learn an efficient algorithm for many important transforms; for example, it recovers the O(N logN) Cooley-Tukey FFT algorithm to machine precision, for dimensions N up to 1024. Furthermore, our method can be incorporated as a lightweight replacement of generic matrices in machine learning pipelines to learn efficient and compressible transformations. On a standard task of compressing a single hidden-layer network, our method exceeds the classification accuracy of unconstrained matrices on CIFAR-10 by 3.9 points—the first time a structured approach has done so—with 4X faster inference speed and 40X fewer parameters.